Systemic Risk and Default Clustering for Large Financial Systems

As it is known in the finance risk and macroeconomics literature, risk-sharing in large portfolios may increase the probability of creation of default clusters and of systemic risk. We review recent developments on mathematical and computational tools for the quantification of such phenomena. Limiting analysis such as law of large numbers and central limit theorems allow to approximate the distribution in large systems and study quantities such as the loss distribution in large portfolios. Large deviations analysis allow us to study the tail of the loss distribution and to identify pathways to default clustering. Sensitivity analysis allows to understand the most likely ways in which different effects, such as contagion and systematic risks, combine to lead to large default rates. Such results could give useful insights into how to optimally safeguard against such events.Comment: in Large Deviations and Asymptotic Methods in Finance, (Editors: P. Friz, J. Gatheral, A. Gulisashvili, A. Jacqier, J. Teichmann) , Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics, Vol. 110 2015

Unified treatment algorithm for the management of crotaline snakebite in the United States: results of an evidence-informed consensus workshop

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Envenomation by crotaline snakes (rattlesnake, cottonmouth, copperhead) is a complex, potentially lethal condition affecting thousands of people in the United States each year. Treatment of crotaline envenomation is not standardized, and significant variation in practice exists.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A geographically diverse panel of experts was convened for the purpose of deriving an evidence-informed unified treatment algorithm. Research staff analyzed the extant medical literature and performed targeted analyses of existing databases to inform specific clinical decisions. A trained external facilitator used modified Delphi and structured consensus methodology to achieve consensus on the final treatment algorithm.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A unified treatment algorithm was produced and endorsed by all nine expert panel members. This algorithm provides guidance about clinical and laboratory observations, indications for and dosing of antivenom, adjunctive therapies, post-stabilization care, and management of complications from envenomation and therapy.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Clinical manifestations and ideal treatment of crotaline snakebite differ greatly, and can result in severe complications. Using a modified Delphi method, we provide evidence-informed treatment guidelines in an attempt to reduce variation in care and possibly improve clinical outcomes.</p

Online Health Check for Reducing Alcohol Intake among Employees:A Feasibility Study in Six Workplaces across England

BACKGROUND: Most hazardous and harmful drinkers are of working age and do not seek help with their drinking. Occupational health services are uniquely placed to universally screen employees across the range of socioeconomic and ethnic groups. The aim was to explore the feasibility and acceptability of offering electronic screening and brief intervention for alcohol misuse in the context of a health check in six different workplace settings.  METHODS AND FINDINGS: Employees were recruited from six workplaces across England, including three local authorities, one university, one hospital and one petro-chemical company. A total of 1,254 (8%) employees completed the health check and received personalised feedback on their alcohol intake, alongside feedback on smoking, fruit and vegetable consumption and physical activity. Most participants were female (65%) and of 'White British' ethnicity (94%), with a mean age of 43 years (SD 11). Participants were mostly in Intermediate occupations (58%), followed by Higher managerial / professional (39%) and Routine and manual occupations (2%). A quarter of participants (25%) were drinking at hazardous levels (33% male, 21% female), which decreased with age. Sixty-four percent (n=797) of participants completed online follow-up at three months. Most participants were supportive of workplaces offering employees an online health check (95%), their preferred format was online (91%) and many were confident of the confidentiality of their responses (60%). Whilst the feedback reminded most participants of things they already knew (75%), some were reportedly motivated to change their behaviour (13%).  CONCLUSIONS: Online health screening and personalised feedback appears feasible and acceptable, but challenges include low participation rates, potentially attracting 'worried well' employees rather than those at greatest health risk, and less acceptance of the approach among older employees and those from ethnic minority backgrounds and routine or manual occupations

Alzheimer's Aβ Peptides with Disease-Associated N-Terminal Modifications: Influence of Isomerisation, Truncation and Mutation on Cu2+ Coordination

coordination of various Aβ peptides has been widely studied. A number of disease-associated modifications involving the first 3 residues are known, including isomerisation, mutation, truncation and cyclisation, but are yet to be characterised in detail. In particular, Aβ in plaques contain a significant amount of truncated pyroglutamate species, which appear to correlate with disease progression. coordination modes between pH 6–9 with nominally the same first coordination sphere, but with a dramatically different pH dependence arising from differences in H-bonding interactions at the N-terminus. coordination of Aβ, which may be critical for alterations in aggregation propensity, redox-activity, resistance to degradation and the generation of the Aβ3–× (× = 40/42) precursor of disease-associated Aβ3[pE]–x species

Eligibility for interventions, co-occurrence and risk factors for unhealthy behaviours in patients consulting for routine primary care: results from the Pre-Empt study

Smoking, excessive drinking, lack of exercise and a poor diet remain key causes of premature morbidity and mortality globally, yet it is not clear what proportion of patients attending for routine primary care are eligible for interventions about these behaviours, the extent to which they co-occur within individuals, and which individuals are at greatest risk for multiple unhealthy behaviours. The aim of the trial was to examine 'intervention eligibility' and co-occurrence of the 'big four' risky health behaviours - lack of exercise, smoking, an unhealthy diet and excessive drinking - in a primary care population. Data were collected from adult patients consulting routinely in general practice across South Wales as part of the Pre-Empt study; a cluster randomised controlled trial. After giving consent, participants completed screening instruments, which included the following to assess eligibility for an intervention based on set thresholds: AUDIT-C (for alcohol), HSI (for smoking), IPAQ (for exercise) and a subset of DINE (for diet). The intervention following screening was based on which combination of risky behaviours the patient had. Descriptive statistics, χ2 tests for association and ordinal regressions were undertaken. Two thousand sixty seven patients were screened: mean age of 48.6 years, 61.9 % female and 42.8 % in a managerial or professional occupation. In terms of numbers of risky behaviours screened eligible for, two was the most common (43.6 %), with diet and exercise (27.2 %) being the most common combination. Insufficient exercise was the most common single risky behaviour (12.0 %). 21.8 % of patients would have been eligible for an intervention for three behaviours and 5.9 % for all four behaviours. Just 4.5 % of patients did not identify any risky behaviours. Women, older age groups and those in managerial or professional occupations were more likely to exhibit all four risky behaviours. Very few patients consulting for routine primary care screen ineligible for interventions about common unhealthy behaviours, and most engage in more than one of the major common unhealthy behaviours. Clinicians should be particularly alert to opportunities to engaging younger, non professional men and those with multi-morbidity about risky health behaviour. ISRCTN22495456. BACKGROUND METHODS RESULTS CONCLUSION TRIAL REGISTRATIO

The DYD-RCT protocol: an on-line randomised controlled trial of an interactive computer-based intervention compared with a standard information website to reduce alcohol consumption among hazardous drinkers

Background: Excessive alcohol consumption is a significant public health problem throughout the world. Although there are a range of effective interventions to help heavy drinkers reduce their alcohol consumption, these have little proven population-level impact. Researchers internationally are looking at the potential of Internet interventions in this area.Methods/Design: In a two-arm randomised controlled trial, an on-line psychologically enhanced interactive computer-based intervention is compared with a flat, text-based information web-site. Recruitment, consent, randomisation and data collection are all on-line. The primary outcome is total past-week alcohol consumption; secondary outcomes include hazardous or harmful drinking, dependence, harm caused by alcohol, and mental health. A health economic analysis is included.Discussion: This trial will provide information on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an on-line intervention to help heavy drinkers drink less.Trial registration: International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number Register ISRCTN31070347

Proton beam therapy

Conventional radiation therapy directs photons (X-rays) and electrons at tumours with the intent of eradicating the neoplastic tissue while preserving adjacent normal tissue. Radiation-induced damage to healthy tissue and second malignancies are always a concern, however, when administering radiation. Proton beam radiotherapy, one form of charged particle therapy, allows for excellent dose distributions, with the added benefit of no exit dose. These characteristics make this form of radiotherapy an excellent choice for the treatment of tumours located next to critical structures such as the spinal cord, eyes, and brain, as well as for paediatric malignancies

ASCI 2010 contrast media guideline for cardiac imaging: a report of the Asian Society of Cardiovascular Imaging cardiac computed tomography and cardiac magnetic resonance imaging guideline working group

The use of contrast media for cardiac imaging becomes increasing as the widespread of cardiac CT and cardiac MR. A radiologist needs to carefully consider the indication and the injection protocol of contrast media to be used as well as the possibility of adverse effect. There are several guidelines for contrast media in western countries. However, these are focusing the adverse effect of contrast media. The Asian Society of Cardiovascular Imaging, the only society dedicated to cardiovascular imaging in Asia, formed a Working Group and created a guideline, which summarizes the integrated knowledge of contrast media for cardiac imaging. In cardiac imaging, coronary artery evaluation is feasible by non-contrast MR angiography, which can be an alternative examination in high risk patients for the use of iodine contrast media. Furthermore, the body habitus of Asian patients is usually smaller than that of their western counterparts. This necessitates modifications in the injection protocol and in the formula for calculation of estimated glomerular filtration rate. This guideline provided fundamental information for the use of contrast media for Asian patients in cardiac imaging